The OLD Philosopher – John M. Miller
For the past ten years or so, especially because of Brexit, the European Union has been somewhat uncertain of what its primary role should be. It never was meant to be the United States of Europe, in any way similar to the United States of America, nor shall it ever be a single state unto itself and to the world.
The European Parliament has limited powers, and is nothing like the US Congress. Until Brexit, Europe was sailing along relatively smoothly, as its founders intended, considering the natural obstacles which existed before and after its official inception.
The biggest threat to the EU turned out to be the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February of 2022. Ironically, that raw display of militancy has become the most unifying incident in the relatively short history of the EU. Vladimir Putin has united the nations of the EU to a degree they have never known or even envisioned.
Timothy Garten Ash is Professor of European Studies at the University of Oxford. In the May-June issue of Foreign Affairs, he wrote an incisive essay called Postimperial Europe. Incidentally, if you have a strong interest in foreign policy, I highly recommend that you subscribe to this outstanding scholarly journal. Considering how many excellent essays and book reviews are in every issue (about 200-pages-worth), it is a relative bargain.
Professor Ash postulated that with the War in Ukraine, the EU in effect has become a postimperial but democratic empire. Heretofore, all empires, of which there have been many throughout history, have been autocratic, with a so-called strongman as the imperial head of government. The EU never intended to be a single state, but the union of many European states, without a supreme leader as such. Thus does Dr. Ash describe it as a “postimperial empire.”
Until Putin sent his army into neighboring Ukraine, Europe was a conglomeration of individual states mainly conducting their own affairs. NATO did not respond as NATO to the invasion of Ukraine, because Ukraine is not a member of NATO. Therefore suddenly most of Europe, most of which consists of the European Union, was thrust into the necessity of taking a position on the naked aggression of Russia. In their own way, nearly every member of the EU has sent military, fiscal, or humanitarian aid to Ukraine. This has united the Union as nothing else previously has done.
I am convinced the establishment of the European Union is the second-most important geopolitical occurrence of the past half century, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. In addition, the Russian invasion of a non-NATO nation has strengthened NATO in unforeseen ways. Suddenly both Sweden and Finland have joined NATO, although Turkey has blocked Sweden’s entrance for the time being. But Putin’s aggression has probably hastened Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine in also wanting to become NATO members before too much more time shall pass. Thus European Russia may have NATO states on all of its European borders with the West except Belarus. And, whenever President Lukashenko dies or leaves office, even Belarus may decide having numerous allies against the Russia Bear is better than to be the single European ally of Russia.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany has suggested that the EU should change its operational procedures so that 55% of member states, representing 65% of the total EU population, could prevent members such as Viktor Orban of Hungary from vetoing major Union decisions. This would further strengthen the implicit power of the EU.
Many billions of dollars in various kinds of assistance from dozens of Western nations have gone to Ukraine as it seeks to blunt or defeat Russian aims in Ukraine. There is more international cooperation in thwarting the Russians’ war than in any other conflict since World War II.
“East is East, and West is West,” as Rudyard Kipling wrote, “and never the twain shall meet.” In the last year, the West has gotten larger, and the East has gotten smaller, and it is because one man born in western Russia tried to corral a western-looking state back into the ever-shrinking Russian sphere of influence. Vladimir Putin may prove to be the biggest factor in uniting the European Union, NATO, and the West against a Eurasian state whose leader is exhibiting increasing paranoia over a now-much-more-unified West.
May 22, 2023
John Miller is Pastor of The Chapel Without Walls on Hilton Head Island, SC. More of his writings may be viewed at www.chapelwithoutwalls.org.